Russian macroeconomicsbeta

The Russian economy at a glance

Macroeconomic states, what changed recently, and the headline indicators

Current macroeconomic states

Credit8 indicators
Weak lending
Confidence: High
Economic growth5 indicators
Accelerating
Confidence: Medium
Inflation12 indicators
Accelerating
Confidence: High

Overheating — The economy is growing fast and inflation is accelerating

What changed

  1. 1Warning
    Block state changed: an undetermined state → accelerating growth
    The economy is growing modestly, gaining pace, retail turnover is growing faster than GDP. Confidence: medium.
  2. 2Info
    Momentum determined: gaining pace
  3. 3Info
    A transition to accelerating growth is possible
  4. 4Info
    Headline and core inflation diverged: -5.91 pp

Overdue releases

DateEventPeriodStatus
Aug 6, 2026Unemployment rate (ILO), aged 15 and over
Labour market · EMISS
May 2026Delayed
41 days overdue
Sep 13, 2026Core consumer price index, month on month
Inflation · EMISS
July 2026Expected
3 days overdue
Sep 14, 2026Core CPI, 3-month seasonally adjusted annualised rate
Inflation
July 2026Expected
2 days overdue
Sep 14, 2026Core consumer price index, seasonally adjusted, month on month
Inflation
July 2026Expected
2 days overdue

Upcoming releases

DateEventPeriodStatus
Sep 18, 2026OFZ yield, 10 years
Financial markets · Bank of Russia
September 2026Upcoming
Sep 19, 2026Bank of Russia key rate
Monetary policy · Bank of Russia
September 2026Upcoming

Key indicators

Banking sector capital adequacy ratio (N1.0)
13.48%
August 2026
Core CPI, 3-month seasonally adjusted annualised rate
6.38%
July 2026 · calculated
Core consumer price index, month on month
100.4
July 2026
Corporate loan debt outstanding
₽88.5 tn
August 2026
Corporate overdue loan debt
₽3.2 tn
August 2026
Consumer price index, 3-month seasonally adjusted annualised rate
7.84%
August 2026 · calculated
Consumer price index, month on month
99.9
August 2026
Consumer price index, year on year
6.34%
August 2026 · calculated
Credit impulse
+0.25 pp
Q2 2026 · calculated
Real credit growth
4.14% y/y
August 2026 · calculated
Current account balance
$12.7 bn
Q2 2026
Non-oil budget balance, share of GDP
-6.90%
Q2 2026 · calculated
Federal non-oil-and-gas budget balance
₽-10.8 tn
August 2026
Fiscal impulse
-1.01 pp
Q2 2026 · calculated
Real GDP, quarter on quarter, seasonally adjusted annualised rate
3.77%
Q2 2026 · calculated
Real GDP, seasonally adjusted
₽36.9 tn
Q2 2026
Real GDP, year on year
1.29%
Q2 2026 · calculated
Household loan debt outstanding
₽37.4 tn
August 2026
Household inflation expectations, median
13.67%
August 2026
International reserves
$753.5 bn
Sep 4, 2026
Bank of Russia key rate
14.00% p.a.
Sep 16, 2026
Broad money supply
₽148.6 tn
August 2026
National Wealth Fund, liquid assets
₽3.7 tn
July 2026 · calculated
OFZ yield, 10 years
16.36% p.a.
Sep 15, 2026
Real key rate versus current inflation
6.16% p.a.
August 2026 · calculated
Real key rate, ex ante
0.33% p.a.
August 2026 · calculated
Real effective exchange rate, change on previous period
-4.80%
August 2026
Retail trade volume index, year on year
105.3
July 2026
Unemployment rate (ILO), aged 15 and over
2.10%
May 2026