The Russian economy at a glance
Macroeconomic states, what changed recently, and the headline indicators
Current macroeconomic states
Credit
10 indicators
Normal
Confidence: High
- Real credit growth 3.52% · Moderate
- Credit impulse 1.09 pp · Holding pace
Credit risk
7 indicators
Watch
Confidence: High
- Household overdue share 4.78% · Elevated arrears
- Household overdue share · change 0.15 pp · Barely changing
External sector
11 indicators
Vulnerable
Confidence: High
- Current account, share of GDP 1.68% · Vulnerable
- Goods imports, year on year 14.94% · both sides moving together
Fiscal
20 indicators
Contractionary
Confidence: High
- Non-oil budget balance, share of GDP -6.90% · Moderate deficit
- Fiscal impulse -1.01 pp · Withdrawing demand
Economic growth
6 indicators
Accelerating
Confidence: Medium
- Real GDP, year on year 1.31% · Modest
- Retail trade volume index, year on year 7.20% · retail above GDP
Inflation
12 indicators
High and accelerating
Awaiting confirmation: Accelerating
Confidence: High
- Consumer price index, 3-month seasonally adjusted annualised rate 6.38% · Elevated
- Core CPI, 3-month seasonally adjusted annualised rate 5.28% · aligned
Labour market
6 indicators
Tight
Confidence: High
- Unemployment rate (ILO), aged 15 and over 2.20% · Extremely low unemployment
- Unemployment rate (ILO), aged 15 and over · change 0.10 pp · Barely changing
Monetary policy
4 indicators
Restrictive
Confidence: High
- Real key rate versus current inflation 7.62% · Restrictive
- OFZ yield, 2 years 14.61% · curve is close to flat
Overheating — Growth is strong or gaining pace while inflation accelerates
What changed
over 7 daysNothing changed in the last week.
Upcoming releases
| Date | Event | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | RUONIA overnight rate Monetary policy · Bank of Russia | October 2026 | Expected today |
| Nov 1, 2026 | OFZ yield, 10 years Financial markets · Bank of Russia | October 2026 | Upcoming |
| Nov 1, 2026 | OFZ yield, 2 years Financial markets · Bank of Russia | October 2026 | Upcoming |
| Nov 2, 2026 | Bank of Russia key rate Monetary policy · Bank of Russia | October 2026 | Upcoming |
| Nov 2, 2026 | Official US dollar exchange rate External sector · Bank of Russia | October 2026 | Upcoming |
Key indicators
Liquid assets against client funds
24.27%
+0.64 pp since the previous period
September 2026 · calculated
Published: Oct 13, 2026
Banking sector profit, year to date
₽3.2 tn
+₽475.6 bn since the previous period
August 2026
Published: Oct 11, 2026
Banking sector capital adequacy ratio (N1.0)
13.50%
+0.02 pp since the previous period
September 2026
Published: Oct 11, 2026
Bank of Russia funding as a share of assets
3.07%
+0.03 pp since the previous period
September 2026 · calculated
Published: Oct 13, 2026
Core CPI, 3-month seasonally adjusted annualised rate
5.28%
-0.15 pp since the previous period
September 2026 · calculated
Published: Oct 12, 2026
Core consumer price index, month on month
100.5
+0.20 pp since the previous period
September 2026
Published: Oct 12, 2026
Corporate loan debt outstanding
₽90.1 tn
+₽1.7 tn since the previous period
September 2026
Published: Oct 8, 2026
Corporate overdue loan debt
₽3.2 tn
+₽53.5 bn since the previous period
September 2026
Published: Oct 8, 2026
Consumer price index, 3-month seasonally adjusted annualised rate
6.38%
-1.46 pp since the previous period
September 2026 · calculated
Published: Oct 12, 2026
Consumer price index, month on month
100.4
+0.43 pp since the previous period
September 2026
Published: Oct 12, 2026
Consumer price index, year on year
6.35%
+0.01 pp since the previous period
September 2026 · calculated
Published: Oct 12, 2026
Credit impulse
+1.09 pp
+2.04 pp since the previous period
Q2 2026 · calculated
Published: Sep 22, 2026
Real credit growth
4.05% y/y
-0.43 pp since the previous period
August 2026 · calculated
Published: Oct 8, 2026
Current account, share of GDP
1.68%
+0.45 pp since the previous period
Q2 2026 · calculated
Published: Oct 1, 2026
Current account balance
$16.9 bn
+$3.8 bn since the previous period
Q2 2026
Published: Oct 1, 2026
Government external debt
$57.3 bn
+$456.7 mn since the previous period
September 2026
Published: Oct 25, 2026
Government internal debt
₽36.7 tn
+₽3.5 tn since the previous period
September 2026
Published: Oct 25, 2026
Non-oil budget balance, share of GDP
-6.90%
+0.25 pp since the previous period
Q2 2026 · calculated
Published: Sep 15, 2026
Federal non-oil-and-gas budget balance
₽-10.7 tn
+₽162.0 bn since the previous period
September 2026
Published: Oct 10, 2026
Fiscal impulse
-1.01 pp
-0.40 pp since the previous period
Q2 2026 · calculated
Published: Sep 15, 2026
Real GDP, quarter on quarter, seasonally adjusted annualised rate
3.77%
+5.28 pp since the previous period
Q2 2026 · calculated
Published: Sep 15, 2026
Real GDP, seasonally adjusted
₽36.9 tn
+₽339.9 bn since the previous period
Q2 2026
Published: Sep 12, 2026
Real GDP, year on year
1.31%
+1.46 pp since the previous period
Q2 2026 · calculated
Published: Sep 22, 2026
Household loan debt outstanding
₽37.6 tn
+₽213.9 bn since the previous period
September 2026
Published: Oct 1, 2026
Household inflation expectations, median
13.22%
-0.94 pp since the previous period
October 2026
Published: Oct 29, 2026
Household overdue share
4.78%
+0.08 pp since the previous period
September 2026 · calculated
Published: Oct 1, 2026
Industrial production index
101.8
+2.40 pp since the previous period
September 2026
Published: Oct 29, 2026
International reserves
$729.6 bn
+$6.4 bn since the previous period
Oct 23, 2026
Published: Oct 30, 2026
Bank of Russia key rate
14.00% p.a.
0.00 pp since the previous period
Oct 30, 2026
Published: Oct 30, 2026
Broad money supply
₽151.3 tn
-₽72.5 bn since the previous period
October 2026
Published: Oct 21, 2026
National Wealth Fund, liquid assets
₽3.8 tn
-₽198.3 bn since the previous period
September 2026 · calculated
Published: Oct 25, 2026
OFZ yield, 10 years
16.52% p.a.
+0.16 pp since the previous period
Oct 29, 2026
Published: Oct 30, 2026
OFZ yield, 2 years
14.90% p.a.
-0.06 pp since the previous period
Oct 29, 2026
Published: Oct 30, 2026
Provisions on household loans
7.73%
+0.03 pp since the previous period
September 2026
Published: Oct 11, 2026
Public debt, share of GDP
16.83%
-0.02 pp since the previous period
Q2 2026 · calculated
Published: Sep 17, 2026
Real key rate versus current inflation
7.62% p.a.
+1.46 pp since the previous period
September 2026 · calculated
Published: Oct 12, 2026
Real key rate, ex ante
0.78% p.a.
+0.94 pp since the previous period
October 2026 · calculated
Published: Oct 29, 2026
Real wages
103.3
0.00 pp since the previous period
August 2026
Published: Oct 29, 2026
Real effective exchange rate, change on previous period
-7.00%
-2.20 pp since the previous period
August 2026
Published: Oct 16, 2026
Retail trade volume index, year on year
103.9
+0.60 pp since the previous period
September 2026
Published: Oct 29, 2026
RUONIA overnight rate
14.09% p.a.
+0.05 pp since the previous period
Oct 28, 2026
Published: Oct 30, 2026
Trade balance
$39.4 bn
+$12.3 bn since the previous period
Q2 2026
Published: Oct 1, 2026
Unemployment rate (ILO), aged 15 and over
2.20%
0.00 pp since the previous period
September 2026
Published: Oct 29, 2026
Official US dollar exchange rate
80.68 RUB/USD
-0.19 RUB/USD since the previous period
Oct 30, 2026
Published: Oct 30, 2026