Fiscal impulse

FISCAL_IMPULSE

Quarterly

Year-on-year change in the non-oil balance as a share of GDP, sign reversed. Positive is stimulative.

Latest value

-1.01 pp

Period Q2 2026 · Published Sep 15, 2026, 03:32 PM MSK

As first published

-0.40 ppon the previous reading

-2.26 ppon a year earlier

History

Date	Value
Q2 2026	-1.01 pp
Q1 2026	-0.61 pp
Q4 2025	-0.64 pp
Q3 2025	+1.47 pp
Q2 2025	+1.25 pp
Q1 2025	+1.42 pp
Q4 2024	+0.30 pp
Q3 2024	-1.67 pp
Q2 2024	-3.22 pp
Q1 2024	-4.49 pp
Q4 2023	-2.56 pp
Q3 2023	+0.22 pp

How to read it

Positive means the budget is adding demand, negative that it is withdrawing it. This measures the direction of policy, not its sustainability: a budget can stimulate and remain sound, and the reverse. A reading near zero means the fiscal stance has not changed over the year, not that it is neutral in itself.

How it is measured

The year-on-year change in the non-oil balance as a share of GDP, with the sign reversed. The non-oil balance rather than the headline one: the headline moves with the oil price, so a windfall would read as tightening with spending unchanged. Year on year rather than quarter on quarter, because spending is heavily seasonal. Not the structural balance, which would need an output gap Russia has no reliable estimate of.

Where this comes from

Type: Calculated on this site
Calculated from: Non-oil budget balance, share of GDP
Frequency: Quarterly