Fiscal
FISCAL
State
ContractionaryConfidence: High
- Level
- Moderate deficit
- Momentum
- Withdrawing demand
- Reference period
- Q2 2026
- Computed
- Oct 31, 2026, 03:30 PM MSK
The budget runs a moderate non-oil deficit, withdrawing demand. Confidence: high.
What this rests on
as of Q2 2026| Indicator | Role | Value | Read as |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-oil budget balance, share of GDP | Primary | -6.90% | Moderate deficit · up |
| Fiscal impulse | Primary | -1.01 pp | Withdrawing demand · down |
| Public debt, share of GDP | Context | 16.83% | solvency, not the direction of policy · flat |
Block indicators
latest value and its change on the previous readingGovernment external debt · primary
September 2026
$57.3 bn
+$456.7 mn
Government internal debt · primary
September 2026
₽36.7 tn
+₽3.5 tn
Non-oil budget balance, share of GDP · primary
Q2 2026 · calculated · imported
-6.90%
+0.25 pp
Federal non-oil-and-gas budget balance · primary
September 2026
₽-10.7 tn
+₽162.0 bn
Fiscal impulse · primary
Q2 2026 · calculated · imported
-1.01 pp
-0.40 pp
National Wealth Fund, liquid assets · primary
September 2026 · calculated
₽3.8 tn
-₽198.3 bn
Public debt, share of GDP · primary
Q2 2026 · calculated · imported
16.83%
-0.02 pp
External debt: state guarantees
September 2026
$23.6 bn
+$635.2 mn
Internal debt: state guarantees
September 2026
₽505.7 bn
-₽3.2 bn
Federal budget balance, approved
2026 · plan
₽-5.1 tn
Federal budget balance
September 2026
₽-5.2 tn
+₽614.3 bn
Federal budget expenditure, approved
2026 · plan
₽45.4 tn
Federal budget expenditure
September 2026
₽34.8 tn
+₽3.1 tn
Federal non-oil-and-gas revenue
September 2026
₽24.2 tn
+₽3.2 tn
Federal oil and gas revenue
September 2026
₽5.5 tn
+₽452.4 bn
Federal budget revenue, approved
2026 · imported · plan
₽40.3 tn
Federal budget revenue
September 2026
₽29.6 tn
+₽3.7 tn
NWF placed in other permitted assets
September 2026
₽9.2 tn
-₽12.0 bn
NWF as a share of GDP
September 2026
5.50%
-0.10 pp
National Wealth Fund, total
September 2026
₽13.0 tn
-₽210.3 bn